Verdict: Toluca win
Best odds: 8/11
Bookmaker: Olympusbet
New York City FC and Toluca will face off for the first time in Leagues Cup history on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium, with both clubs vying for a spot in the knockout rounds.
Toluca showed resilience in their tournament opener, overturning a one-goal deficit to edge CF Montreal 2-1 and extend their unbeaten run. Meanwhile, NYCFC produced a composed performance to dispatch Club Leon 2-0, maintaining their recent upswing in form under Nick Cushing.
Toluca
Toluca continued their trend of slow starts in the Leagues Cup on matchday two, conceding first yet againâ€"but, as with previous matches, they recovered to win. Antonio Mohamed’s side have now won both of their group-stage fixtures in this year’s tournament despite falling behind early, extending a remarkable pattern: they have won their last five competitive games when conceding the opener, while their only July defeat came after scoring first in a 4-3 loss to Tigres.
Despite their perfect record so far, Toluca still need a win in regulation time on Tuesday to be certain of a place in the quarter-finals. Their attacking reliability continues to be a defining traitâ€"since the introduction of a group stage in the Leagues Cup in 2023, Toluca have never failed to score in such a match, averaging multiple goals per game.
Striking early has also proven crucial to their success. All five of their 90-minute group-stage wins have featured at least one goal before the break. Historically, they’ve also enjoyed facing MLS sidesâ€"seven wins from nine encounters and no losses in the group phase underlines their strength.
Team News
Only one change was made to the Toluca XI on Friday, with Helinho stepping in for Bruno Mendez.
The Diablos Rojos responded swiftly to falling behind: Jesus Angulo equalised within three minutes, before Paulinho netted the winner shortly thereafter.
New York City
New York City FC stayed true to their 2025 pattern by responding to a setback with a bounce-back victory, defeating Club Leon 2-0 in their second Leagues Cup match. Under Pascal Jansen, the Pigeons have not lost back-to-back domestic fixtures since March-April, and they̢۪ve also avoided consecutive defeats in this tournament throughout their history.
Now sitting on three points, NYCFC will likely need a win on matchday three to advance and avoid a first-ever Leagues Cup group-stage exit. Their formula for success is clear: when scoring multiple goals, they̢۪ve won five straight matches; when striking first, they are unbeaten in nine, dropping points just once in that span (a 1-1 draw with Sporting Kansas City).
However, history is not on their side when it comes to facing Liga MX opposition at Yankee Stadium. While they beat Queretaro on penalties last year, NYCFC have never won a Leagues Cup group game in regulation time at home against a Mexican club.
Team News
The squad remains without Keaton Parks, Thiago Martins, and Malachi Jones, all out with leg injuries. Nonetheless, they made a strong impression against Leon, with Alonso Martinez scoring inside seven minutes, Agustin Ojeda doubling the lead before halftime, and Matt Freese producing five saves to secure a clean sheet.
Conclusion
It̢۪s uncommon to see New York City FC completely outplayed, but their biggest issue in 2025 has been maintaining intensity from game to game.
In contrast, Toluca have demonstrated far greater consistency throughout the year, delivering more stable performances across successive matches. They should be able to scrape a narrow victory here.
Verdict: Toluca win
Best odds: 8/11
Bookmaker: Olympusbet